Huesca 1–0 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Zaragoza

O. Sielva 65' (pen)

4/26/2026

Segunda División · Round 37Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Huesca44%

×Draw28%

Zaragoza28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.97

Huesca

1.29

Zaragoza

0.97

Huesca creates 33% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 169 away

1.28

creates per match

1.01

0.92

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Huesca

1.28

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Huesca

0.92

Zaragoza

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

72%

Huesca or Zaragoza

72%

Draw or Zaragoza

56%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

20%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

72%

Huesca 2+ goals

37%

Huesca 3+ goals

14%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

62%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

25%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

61%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 169 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.28 + Zaragoza defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Huesca defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huesca scores more

44%

level

28%

Zaragoza scores more

28%

Huesca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

E. Andrada

Zaragoza · G

8.7

Match Events

6'

Oscar SielvaMissed penalty

44'

Pablo Insua

57'

K. Kodro← M. A. Cuenca

62'

Juan Larios

64'

Esteban Andrada

65'

O. SielvaPenalty

67'

Toni Abad

71'

J. Martin← O. Sielva

71'

E. Rodriguez← S. Enrich

71'

A. Carrillo← Toni Abad

74'

R. Guti← M. Mensah

74'

D. Tasende← J. Larios

78'

M. Agbekpornu← Pina

82'

L. Beltran← R. Abajas

85'

H. Pinilla← D. Gomez

85'

T. Moya← Y. Saidu

86'

Javi Mier

90+13'

Dani Jiménez

90+13'

Dani JiménezCard upgrade

90+8'

90+4'

90+13'

90+8'

90+8'

Dani TasendeCard upgrade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaZaragoza

Overview

39%Possession61%

12Total Shots7

1Corners5

15Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots7

5On Target2

4Off Target2

3Blocked3

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box1

Passing

39%Possession61%

286Total Passes448

215Accurate Passes368

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

15Fouls20

2Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards2

3Offsides2

Segunda División: Huesca 1–0 Zaragoza

Huesca beat Zaragoza 1-0 in Segunda División on April 26, 2026.

Goals: O. Sielva (65' pen).

Zaragoza controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.

Huesca vs Zaragoza — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Segunda División: Huesca 1–0 Zaragoza