Huesca 1–2 Zaragoza: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Zaragoza

Miguel Loureiro 19'

Maikel Mesa 45+5' (pen)

Adrian Liso 36'

4/20/2024

Segunda División · Round 36Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Huesca44%

×Draw28%

Zaragoza28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchZaragoza

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.96

Huesca

1.29

Zaragoza

0.96

Huesca creates 34% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 172 away

1.29

creates per match

1.01

0.91

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Huesca

1.29

Zaragoza

1.01

allows per match

Huesca

0.91

Zaragoza

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Zaragoza+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Zaragoza →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

72%

Huesca or Zaragoza

72%

Draw or Zaragoza

56%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

20%

Zaragoza wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

72%

Huesca 2+ goals

37%

Huesca 3+ goals

14%

Zaragoza 1+ goals

62%

Zaragoza 2+ goals

25%

Zaragoza 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

61%

Zaragoza (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.91 · 129 matches

Zaragoza away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.29 · 172 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.29 + Zaragoza defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Zaragoza attack 1.01 + Huesca defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huesca scores more

44%

level

28%

Zaragoza scores more

28%

Huesca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Maikel Mesa

Zaragoza · M

7.9

Match Events

11'

Adrian Liso

19'

Miguel Loureiro

36'

Adrian Liso↳ Lluís López

45+3'

Maikel MesaPenalty confirmed

45+5'

Maikel MesaPenalty

46'

A. Zedadka← Q. Lecoeuche

59'

Miguel Loureiro

61'

Hugo Vallejo← Joaquín Muñoz

62'

S. Obeng← Elady

65'

Jaume Grau← Maikel Mesa

67'

Santiago Mouriño

69'

Javi Mier← Iker Kortajarena

70'

J. Bolívar← Miguel Loureiro

72'

Édgar Badía

76'

Germán Valera← Adrian Liso

77'

Samuel Obeng

77'

Akim Zedadka

82'

Rafa Tresaco← Gerard Valentín

85'

Santiago Mouriño

85'

Santiago Mouriño

87'

Jair Amador← Iván Azón

89'

Jovanny Bolívar

90+4'

Oscar Sielva

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaZaragoza

Overview

63%Possession37%

6Total Shots9

8Corners3

14Fouls17

Shots

6Total Shots9

3On Target4

3Off Target4

0Blocked1

4Inside Box5

2Outside Box4

Passing

63%Possession37%

446Total Passes271

374Accurate Passes206

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls17

3Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards1

1Offsides3