Huesca 2–2 Villarreal II: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Villarreal II

9/16/2023

Segunda División · Round 6Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Huesca51%

×Draw27%

Villarreal II22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchVillarreal II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.86

Huesca

1.46

Villarreal II

0.86

Huesca creates 70% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 42 away

1.28

creates per match

0.81

0.92

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Huesca

1.28

Villarreal II

0.81

allows per match

Huesca

0.92

Villarreal II

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par

Villarreal II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Villarreal II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

78%

Huesca or Villarreal II

73%

Draw or Villarreal II

49%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

26%

Villarreal II wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

77%

Huesca 2+ goals

43%

Huesca 3+ goals

18%

Villarreal II 1+ goals

58%

Villarreal II 2+ goals

21%

Villarreal II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

70%

Villarreal II (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Villarreal II away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.64 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.28 + Villarreal II defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Villarreal II attack 0.81 + Huesca defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Huesca scores more

51%

level

27%

Villarreal II scores more

22%

Huesca at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff