Huesca 1–0 Malaga: Result & Stats

Huesca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Malaga

L. Beltran 90'

9/13/2025

Segunda División · Round 5Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Huesca33%

×Draw23%

Malaga44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuescaExpected goals in this matchMalaga

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.77

Huesca

1.50

Malaga

1.77

Malaga creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.74

creates per match

2.14

1.39

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Huesca

1.74

Malaga

2.14

allows per match

Huesca

1.39

Malaga

1.25

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Huesca-0.34scores less

Malaga-0.14scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Malaga →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Huesca or draw

56%

Huesca or Malaga

77%

Draw or Malaga

67%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+

15%

Malaga wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals

78%

Huesca 2+ goals

44%

Huesca 3+ goals

19%

Malaga 1+ goals

83%

Malaga 2+ goals

53%

Malaga 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)

43%

Malaga (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.39 · 5 matches

Malaga away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.74 + Malaga defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.50

Malaga attack 2.14 + Huesca defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huesca scores more

33%

level

23%

Malaga scores more

44%

Malaga at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Malaga will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Montero

Malaga · D

7.9

Match Events

39'

Iker Kortajarena

46'

D. Brasanac← J. Lobete

58'

Iñigo Sebastián Magana

61'

Julio Alonso

61'

Diego Murillo

66'

O. Sielva← J. Alvarez

67'

A. Carrillo← Pina

67'

D. Lorenzo← C. Dotor

67'

A. Nino← Chupe

73'

74'

77'

78'

79'

85'

90+5'

90'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuescaMalaga

Overview

48%Possession52%

12Total Shots7

4Corners3

17Fouls11

Shots

12Total Shots7

3On Target3

6Off Target4

3Blocked0

4Inside Box4

8Outside Box3

Passing

48%Possession52%

347Total Passes378

261Accurate Passes286

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow Cards2

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Huesca vs Malaga

Huesca beat Malaga 1-0 in Segunda División on September 13, 2025.

Goals: L. Beltran (90').

Malaga controlled possession (52%) and registered 7 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.

Huesca vs Malaga — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Huesca vs Malaga