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Huesca vs Extremadura — Segunda División 2018

Huesca
Huesca
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Extremadura
Extremadura
2/29/2020Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 30Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Huesca43%
×Draw28%
Extremadura29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca
1.29
Extremadura
1.00

Huesca creates 29% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 42 away

creates per match

Huesca
1.28
Extremadura
1.07

allows per match

Huesca
0.92
Extremadura
1.31

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par
Extremadura+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Extremadura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huesca or draw
71%
Huesca or Extremadura
72%
Draw or Extremadura
57%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+
20%
Extremadura wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals
72%
Huesca 2+ goals
37%
Huesca 3+ goals
14%
Extremadura 1+ goals
63%
Extremadura 2+ goals
26%
Extremadura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)
60%
Extremadura (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Extremadura away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.31 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.28 + Extremadura defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.29

Extremadura attack 1.07 + Huesca defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huesca scores more
43%
level
28%
Extremadura scores more
29%

Huesca at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huesca vs Extremadura

Huesca and Extremadura drew 2-2 in Segunda División on February 29, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.