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Huesca vs Alcorcon — Segunda División 2018

Huesca
Huesca
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alcorcon
Alcorcon
12/19/2021Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 21Estadio El Alcoraz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Huesca46%
×Draw28%
Alcorcon26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca
1.31
Alcorcon
0.91

Huesca creates 44% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 105 away

creates per match

Huesca
1.28
Alcorcon
0.90

allows per match

Huesca
0.92
Alcorcon
1.33

finishing

Huesca+0.00on par
Alcorcon+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca ↓

Alcorcon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Huesca or draw
74%
Huesca or Alcorcon
72%
Draw or Alcorcon
54%

Winning margin

Huesca wins by 2+
21%
Alcorcon wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huesca 1+ goals
73%
Huesca 2+ goals
38%
Huesca 3+ goals
14%
Alcorcon 1+ goals
60%
Alcorcon 2+ goals
23%
Alcorcon 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huesca (draw refunded)
64%
Alcorcon (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca at home — creates 1.28, concedes 0.92 · 126 matches

Alcorcon away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.33 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca attack 1.28 + Alcorcon defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Alcorcon attack 0.90 + Huesca defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huesca scores more
46%
level
28%
Alcorcon scores more
26%

Huesca at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huesca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huesca vs Alcorcon

Huesca and Alcorcon drew 0-0 in Segunda División on December 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Alcoraz in Huesca.