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Huesca II vs Valdefierro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Valdefierro
Valdefierro
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 20Complejo Deportivo San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Huesca II67%
×Draw21%
Valdefierro12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.92
Valdefierro
0.67

Huesca II creates 187% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 31 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Valdefierro
0.45

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Valdefierro
2.16

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Valdefierro+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Valdefierro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
88%
Huesca II or Valdefierro
79%
Draw or Valdefierro
33%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
41%
Valdefierro wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
85%
Huesca II 2+ goals
57%
Huesca II 3+ goals
30%
Valdefierro 1+ goals
49%
Valdefierro 2+ goals
15%
Valdefierro 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
85%
Valdefierro (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Valdefierro away — creates 0.45, concedes 2.16 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Valdefierro defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.92

Valdefierro attack 0.45 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Huesca II scores more
67%
level
21%
Valdefierro scores more
12%

Huesca II at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 2–1 Valdefierro

Huesca II beat Valdefierro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo San Jorge in Huesca.