Huesca II 7–1 Fuentes: Result & Stats

Huesca II

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 0

Fuentes

10/13/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 6Base Aragonesa de Futbol Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Huesca II58%

×Draw24%

Fuentes18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huesca IIExpected goals in this matchFuentes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.81

Huesca II

1.68

Fuentes

0.81

Huesca II creates 107% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 34 away

1.68

creates per match

0.74

0.88

allows per match

1.68

creates per match

Huesca II

1.68

Fuentes

0.74

allows per match

Huesca II

0.88

Fuentes

1.68

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par

Fuentes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Fuentes →

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–014%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw

82%

Huesca II or Fuentes

76%

Draw or Fuentes

42%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+

32%

Fuentes wins by 2+

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals

81%

Huesca II 2+ goals

50%

Huesca II 3+ goals

24%

Fuentes 1+ goals

56%

Fuentes 2+ goals

19%

Fuentes 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)

76%

Fuentes (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Fuentes away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.68 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Fuentes defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.68

Fuentes attack 0.74 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 58%?"

Huesca II scores more

58%

level

24%

Fuentes scores more

18%

Huesca II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff