Huesca II 2–0 Cuarte: Result & Stats

Huesca II

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cuarte

11/16/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 10Base Aragonesa de Futbol Campo 3

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Huesca II44%

×Draw28%

Cuarte28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huesca IIExpected goals in this matchCuarte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

0.98

Huesca II

1.32

Cuarte

0.98

Huesca II creates 35% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 112 away

1.68

creates per match

1.08

0.88

allows per match

0.96

creates per match

Huesca II

1.68

Cuarte

1.08

allows per match

Huesca II

0.88

Cuarte

0.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par

Cuarte+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Cuarte →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw

72%

Huesca II or Cuarte

72%

Draw or Cuarte

56%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+

21%

Cuarte wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals

73%

Huesca II 2+ goals

38%

Huesca II 3+ goals

15%

Cuarte 1+ goals

62%

Cuarte 2+ goals

26%

Cuarte 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)

62%

Cuarte (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Cuarte away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Cuarte defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.32

Cuarte attack 1.08 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huesca II scores more

44%

level

28%

Cuarte scores more

28%

Huesca II at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff