Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huesca II vs Caspe — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Caspe
Caspe
2/4/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 19Base Aragonesa de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Huesca II49%
×Draw27%
Caspe24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.39
Caspe
0.89

Huesca II creates 56% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 83 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Caspe
0.89

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Caspe
1.10

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Caspe+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Caspe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
76%
Huesca II or Caspe
73%
Draw or Caspe
51%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
23%
Caspe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
75%
Huesca II 2+ goals
40%
Huesca II 3+ goals
16%
Caspe 1+ goals
59%
Caspe 2+ goals
22%
Caspe 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
67%
Caspe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Caspe away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.10 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Caspe defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.39

Caspe attack 0.89 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Huesca II scores more
49%
level
27%
Caspe scores more
24%

Huesca II at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 0–1 Caspe

Caspe beat Huesca II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on February 4, 2024.

The match was played at Base Aragonesa de Fútbol in Huesca.