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Huesca II vs Cariñena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Cariñena
Cariñena
3/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 24Complejo Deportivo San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Huesca II57%
×Draw23%
Cariñena19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.75
Cariñena
0.90

Huesca II creates 94% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 82 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Cariñena
0.91

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Cariñena
1.83

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Cariñena+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Cariñena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
81%
Huesca II or Cariñena
77%
Draw or Cariñena
43%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
32%
Cariñena wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
83%
Huesca II 2+ goals
52%
Huesca II 3+ goals
25%
Cariñena 1+ goals
59%
Cariñena 2+ goals
23%
Cariñena 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
75%
Cariñena (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Cariñena away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.83 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Cariñena defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.75

Cariñena attack 0.91 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Huesca II scores more
57%
level
23%
Cariñena scores more
19%

Huesca II at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 3–0 Cariñena

Huesca II beat Cariñena 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 5, 2023.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo San Jorge in Huesca.