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Huesca II vs Calamocha — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Calamocha
Calamocha
3/3/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 23Base Aragonesa de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Huesca II47%
×Draw27%
Calamocha26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.38
Calamocha
0.95

Huesca II creates 45% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Calamocha
1.01

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Calamocha
1.07

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Calamocha+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Calamocha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
74%
Huesca II or Calamocha
73%
Draw or Calamocha
53%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
22%
Calamocha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
75%
Huesca II 2+ goals
40%
Huesca II 3+ goals
16%
Calamocha 1+ goals
61%
Calamocha 2+ goals
25%
Calamocha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
64%
Calamocha (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Calamocha away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.07 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Calamocha defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Calamocha attack 1.01 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huesca II scores more
47%
level
27%
Calamocha scores more
26%

Huesca II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 0–1 Calamocha

Calamocha beat Huesca II 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 3, 2024.

The match was played at Base Aragonesa de Fútbol in Huesca.