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Huesca II vs Belchite 97 — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Belchite 97
Belchite 97
5/12/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 34Base Aragonesa de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Huesca II50%
×Draw27%
Belchite 9723%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.43
Belchite 97
0.88

Huesca II creates 63% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 95 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Belchite 97
0.87

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Belchite 97
1.18

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Belchite 97+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Belchite 97 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
77%
Huesca II or Belchite 97
73%
Draw or Belchite 97
50%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
25%
Belchite 97 wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
76%
Huesca II 2+ goals
42%
Huesca II 3+ goals
17%
Belchite 97 1+ goals
59%
Belchite 97 2+ goals
22%
Belchite 97 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
68%
Belchite 97 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Belchite 97 away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.18 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Belchite 97 defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.43

Belchite 97 attack 0.87 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huesca II scores more
50%
level
27%
Belchite 97 scores more
23%

Huesca II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huesca II vs Belchite 97

Huesca II and Belchite 97 drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Base Aragonesa de Fútbol in Huesca.