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Huesca II vs Barbastro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Huesca II
Huesca II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Barbastro
Barbastro
12/18/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 15Complejo Deportivo San Jorge

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Huesca II42%
×Draw26%
Barbastro32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huesca II
1.42
Barbastro
1.20

Huesca II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 59 away

creates per match

Huesca II
1.68
Barbastro
1.51

allows per match

Huesca II
0.88
Barbastro
1.17

finishing

Huesca II+0.00on par
Barbastro+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huesca II ↓

Barbastro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huesca II or draw
68%
Huesca II or Barbastro
74%
Draw or Barbastro
58%

Winning margin

Huesca II wins by 2+
20%
Barbastro wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huesca II 1+ goals
76%
Huesca II 2+ goals
41%
Huesca II 3+ goals
17%
Barbastro 1+ goals
70%
Barbastro 2+ goals
34%
Barbastro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Huesca II (draw refunded)
57%
Barbastro (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huesca II at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.88 · 80 matches

Barbastro away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huesca II attack 1.68 + Barbastro defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.42

Barbastro attack 1.51 + Huesca II defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huesca II scores more
42%
level
26%
Barbastro scores more
32%

Huesca II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huesca II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 17: Huesca II 0–2 Barbastro

Barbastro beat Huesca II 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on December 18, 2022.

The match was played at Complejo Deportivo San Jorge in Huesca.