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Huércal Overa vs Los Garres — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
CANC
00:00
Los Garres
Los Garres
3/15/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 29Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Huércal Overa43%
×Draw28%
Los Garres29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.31
Los Garres
1.01

Huércal Overa creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 44 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Los Garres
0.98

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Los Garres
1.57

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Los Garres+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Los Garres →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
71%
Huércal Overa or Los Garres
72%
Draw or Los Garres
57%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
20%
Los Garres wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
73%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
38%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
14%
Los Garres 1+ goals
64%
Los Garres 2+ goals
27%
Los Garres 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
60%
Los Garres (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Los Garres away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Los Garres defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.31

Los Garres attack 0.98 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
43%
level
28%
Los Garres scores more
29%

Huércal Overa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huércal Overa vs Los Garres — Match Preview

Huércal Overa face Los Garres on March 15, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Huércal Overa host Los Garres at Estadio El Hornillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.