Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huércal Overa vs Lorca Deportiva — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
CANC
22:00
Lorca Deportiva
Lorca Deportiva
5/2/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 36Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa30%
×Draw28%
Lorca Deportiva42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.05
Lorca Deportiva
1.31

Lorca Deportiva creates 25% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 80 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Lorca Deportiva
1.57

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
Lorca Deportiva
1.06

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
Lorca Deportiva+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

Lorca Deportiva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
58%
Huércal Overa or Lorca Deportiva
72%
Draw or Lorca Deportiva
70%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
11%
Lorca Deportiva wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
65%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
28%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
9%
Lorca Deportiva 1+ goals
73%
Lorca Deportiva 2+ goals
38%
Lorca Deportiva 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
41%
Lorca Deportiva (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

Lorca Deportiva away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + Lorca Deportiva defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.05

Lorca Deportiva attack 1.57 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
30%
level
28%
Lorca Deportiva scores more
42%

Lorca Deportiva at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Lorca Deportiva will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huércal Overa vs Lorca Deportiva — Match Preview

Huércal Overa face Lorca Deportiva on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Huércal Overa host Lorca Deportiva at Estadio El Hornillo.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.