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Huércal Overa vs EDMF Churra — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Huércal Overa
Huércal Overa
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
EDMF Churra
EDMF Churra
5/16/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 13Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 2nd Phase - 6Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Huércal Overa48%
×Draw26%
EDMF Churra26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huércal Overa
1.48
EDMF Churra
1.00

Huércal Overa creates 48% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 28 away

creates per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
EDMF Churra
0.96

allows per match

Huércal Overa
1.04
EDMF Churra
1.93

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par
EDMF Churra+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

EDMF Churra →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw
74%
Huércal Overa or EDMF Churra
74%
Draw or EDMF Churra
52%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+
24%
EDMF Churra wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals
77%
Huércal Overa 2+ goals
43%
Huércal Overa 3+ goals
19%
EDMF Churra 1+ goals
63%
EDMF Churra 2+ goals
26%
EDMF Churra 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)
65%
EDMF Churra (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

EDMF Churra away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.93 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + EDMF Churra defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.48

EDMF Churra attack 0.96 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Huércal Overa scores more
48%
level
26%
EDMF Churra scores more
26%

Huércal Overa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huércal Overa 0 – 3 EDMF Churra

EDMF Churra beat Huércal Overa 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on May 16, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.