Huércal Overa 0–1 CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Huércal Overa

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

Franco 50'

4/16/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 · Group 13 - 32Estadio El Hornillo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Huércal Overa43%

×Draw29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huércal OveraExpected goals in this matchCAP Ciudad de Murcia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.95

Huércal Overa

1.25

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.95

Huércal Overa creates 32% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 78 away

1.04

creates per match

0.85

1.04

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Huércal Overa

1.04

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

0.85

allows per match

Huércal Overa

1.04

CAP Ciudad de Murcia

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huércal Overa+0.00on par

CAP Ciudad de Murcia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huércal Overa ↓

CAP Ciudad de Murcia →

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Huércal Overa or draw

72%

Huércal Overa or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

71%

Draw or CAP Ciudad de Murcia

57%

Winning margin

Huércal Overa wins by 2+

19%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Huércal Overa 1+ goals

71%

Huércal Overa 2+ goals

36%

Huércal Overa 3+ goals

13%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 1+ goals

61%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 2+ goals

25%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Huércal Overa (draw refunded)

61%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huércal Overa at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.04 · 45 matches

CAP Ciudad de Murcia away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.45 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huércal Overa attack 1.04 + CAP Ciudad de Murcia defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

CAP Ciudad de Murcia attack 0.85 + Huércal Overa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huércal Overa scores more

43%

level

29%

CAP Ciudad de Murcia scores more

28%

Huércal Overa at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Huércal Overa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

50'

Franco

62'

Ivan Ferrer← José García

62'

Campanas← Rafael Silveira

62'

Alejandro Pérez← Emilio Pérez

70'

Alberto Martínez← David Valverde

79'

Sergio Ponte← Yeray Molina

79'

Bellal Sakroni← E. Monemou

80'

Trucha← Franco

Huércal

CAP

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Roberto Lucas

62'▲Ivan Ferrer←▼José García

62'▲Campanas←▼Rafael Silveira

79'▲Sergio Ponte←▼Yeray Molina

79'▲Bellal Sakroni←▼E. Monemou

Huércal Overa substitutes

FerrerCampanasPonteSakroni

Manager: Ismael Ibañez

62'▲Alejandro Pérez←▼Emilio Pérez

70'▲Alberto Martínez←▼David Valverde

80'▲Trucha←▼Franco

CAP Ciudad de Murcia substitutes

PérezMartínezTrucha

Match Recap: Huércal Overa vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia

CAP Ciudad de Murcia beat Huércal Overa 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 on April 16, 2022.

Goals: Franco (50').

The match was played at Estadio El Hornillo in Huércal-Overa.

Huércal Overa vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 13 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Huércal Overa vs CAP Ciudad de Murcia