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Hudiksvall vs GIF Sundsvall — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hudiksvall
Hudiksvall
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
GIF Sundsvall
GIF Sundsvall
10/7/2020Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundGlysis Sparbanken Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hudiksvall38%
×Draw22%
GIF Sundsvall40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hudiksvall
1.84
GIF Sundsvall
1.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 8 home / 17 away

creates per match

Hudiksvall
1.50
GIF Sundsvall
1.18

allows per match

Hudiksvall
2.63
GIF Sundsvall
2.18

finishing

Hudiksvall+0.00on par
GIF Sundsvall+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hudiksvall ↓

GIF Sundsvall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Hudiksvall or draw
60%
Hudiksvall or GIF Sundsvall
78%
Draw or GIF Sundsvall
62%

Winning margin

Hudiksvall wins by 2+
20%
GIF Sundsvall wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Hudiksvall 1+ goals
84%
Hudiksvall 2+ goals
55%
Hudiksvall 3+ goals
28%
GIF Sundsvall 1+ goals
85%
GIF Sundsvall 2+ goals
56%
GIF Sundsvall 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Hudiksvall (draw refunded)
49%
GIF Sundsvall (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hudiksvall at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

GIF Sundsvall away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hudiksvall attack 1.50 + GIF Sundsvall defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.84

GIF Sundsvall attack 1.18 + Hudiksvall defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hudiksvall scores more
38%
level
22%
GIF Sundsvall scores more
40%

GIF Sundsvall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "GIF Sundsvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Hudiksvall 0–3 GIF Sundsvall

GIF Sundsvall beat Hudiksvall 3-0 in Svenska Cupen on October 7, 2020.

The match was played at Glysis Sparbanken Arena in Hudiksvall.