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Hudiksvall vs Fagersta Södra IK — Division 2 - Norra Svealand 2019

Hudiksvall
Hudiksvall
FT
7 – 0
Fagersta Södra IK
Fagersta Södra IK
9/19/2020Division 2 - Norra SvealandDivision 2 - Norra Svealand · Norra Svealand - 9Glysis Sparbanken Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hudiksvall83%
×Draw10%
Fagersta Södra IK7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hudiksvall
3.63
Fagersta Södra IK
1.04

Hudiksvall creates 249% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 6 away

creates per match

Hudiksvall
2.42
Fagersta Södra IK
0.67

allows per match

Hudiksvall
1.42
Fagersta Södra IK
4.83

finishing

Hudiksvall+0.00on par
Fagersta Södra IK+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hudiksvall ↓

Fagersta Södra IK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–14%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–18%
4–24%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
66%34%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Hudiksvall or draw
93%
Hudiksvall or Fagersta Södra IK
90%
Draw or Fagersta Södra IK
17%

Winning margin

Hudiksvall wins by 2+
66%
Fagersta Södra IK wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Hudiksvall 1+ goals
97%
Hudiksvall 2+ goals
87%
Hudiksvall 3+ goals
68%
Fagersta Södra IK 1+ goals
65%
Fagersta Södra IK 2+ goals
28%
Fagersta Södra IK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Hudiksvall (draw refunded)
92%
Fagersta Södra IK (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hudiksvall at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

Fagersta Södra IK away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hudiksvall attack 2.42 + Fagersta Södra IK defence 4.83 → ÷2 → 3.63

Fagersta Södra IK attack 0.67 + Hudiksvall defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Hudiksvall scores more
83%
level
10%
Fagersta Södra IK scores more
7%

Hudiksvall at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Hudiksvall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hudiksvall vs Fagersta Södra IK

Hudiksvall beat Fagersta Södra IK 7-0 in Division 2 - Norra Svealand on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Glysis Sparbanken Arena in Hudiksvall.