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Hudiksvall vs AIK Stockholm — Svenska Cupen 2019

Hudiksvall
Hudiksvall
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
AIK Stockholm
AIK Stockholm
8/31/2022Svenska CupenSvenska Cupen · 2nd RoundGlysisvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Hudiksvall15%
×Draw16%
AIK Stockholm70%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hudiksvall
1.27
AIK Stockholm
2.87

AIK Stockholm creates 126% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 19 away

creates per match

Hudiksvall
1.50
AIK Stockholm
3.11

allows per match

Hudiksvall
2.63
AIK Stockholm
1.05

finishing

Hudiksvall+0.00on par
AIK Stockholm+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hudiksvall ↓

AIK Stockholm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Hudiksvall or draw
30%
Hudiksvall or AIK Stockholm
84%
Draw or AIK Stockholm
85%

Winning margin

Hudiksvall wins by 2+
6%
AIK Stockholm wins by 2+
49%

Team goals

Hudiksvall 1+ goals
72%
Hudiksvall 2+ goals
36%
Hudiksvall 3+ goals
14%
AIK Stockholm 1+ goals
94%
AIK Stockholm 2+ goals
77%
AIK Stockholm 3+ goals
53%

Draw no bet

Hudiksvall (draw refunded)
17%
AIK Stockholm (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hudiksvall at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.63 · 8 matches

AIK Stockholm away — creates 3.11, concedes 1.05 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hudiksvall attack 1.50 + AIK Stockholm defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.27

AIK Stockholm attack 3.11 + Hudiksvall defence 2.63 → ÷2 → 2.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Hudiksvall scores more
15%
level
16%
AIK Stockholm scores more
70%

AIK Stockholm at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "AIK Stockholm will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Svenska Cupen: Hudiksvall 2–4 AIK Stockholm

AIK Stockholm beat Hudiksvall 4-2 in Svenska Cupen on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Glysisvallen in Hudiksvall.