Huddinge 2–2 Trosa-Vagnhärad SK: Result & Stats

Huddinge

FT

2 – 2

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

8/23/2020

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 5Källbrinks IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Huddinge59%

×Draw19%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddingeExpected goals in this matchTrosa-Vagnhärad SK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

1.39

Huddinge

2.39

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.39

Huddinge creates 72% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 34 away

2.02

creates per match

1.26

1.51

allows per match

2.76

creates per match

Huddinge

2.02

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

1.26

allows per match

Huddinge

1.51

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

2.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddinge+0.00on par

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddinge ↓

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Huddinge or draw

78%

Huddinge or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

81%

Draw or Trosa-Vagnhärad SK

41%

Winning margin

Huddinge wins by 2+

38%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Huddinge 1+ goals

91%

Huddinge 2+ goals

69%

Huddinge 3+ goals

42%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 1+ goals

75%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 2+ goals

40%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Huddinge (draw refunded)

73%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddinge at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK away — creates 1.26, concedes 2.76 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddinge attack 2.02 + Trosa-Vagnhärad SK defence 2.76 → ÷2 → 2.39

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK attack 1.26 + Huddinge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Huddinge scores more

59%

level

19%

Trosa-Vagnhärad SK scores more

22%

Huddinge at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Huddinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff