Huddinge 1–1 Ljungsbro: Result & Stats

Huddinge

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ljungsbro

9/22/2024

Division 2 - Södra Svealand · Södra Svealand - 22Källbrinks IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Huddinge61%

×Draw18%

Ljungsbro21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddingeExpected goals in this matchLjungsbro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.55

1.44

Huddinge

2.55

Ljungsbro

1.44

Huddinge creates 77% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 13 away

2.02

creates per match

1.38

1.51

allows per match

3.08

creates per match

Huddinge

2.02

Ljungsbro

1.38

allows per match

Huddinge

1.51

Ljungsbro

3.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddinge+0.00on par

Ljungsbro+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddinge ↓

Ljungsbro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Huddinge or draw

79%

Huddinge or Ljungsbro

82%

Draw or Ljungsbro

39%

Winning margin

Huddinge wins by 2+

40%

Ljungsbro wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Huddinge 1+ goals

92%

Huddinge 2+ goals

72%

Huddinge 3+ goals

46%

Ljungsbro 1+ goals

76%

Ljungsbro 2+ goals

42%

Ljungsbro 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Huddinge (draw refunded)

75%

Ljungsbro (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddinge at home — creates 2.02, concedes 1.51 · 86 matches

Ljungsbro away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddinge attack 2.02 + Ljungsbro defence 3.08 → ÷2 → 2.55

Ljungsbro attack 1.38 + Huddinge defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Huddinge scores more

61%

level

18%

Ljungsbro scores more

21%

Huddinge at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Huddinge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff