Huddersfield 0–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Watford

11/4/2023

Championship · Round 15John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Huddersfield32%

×Draw28%

Watford40%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.27

Huddersfield

1.11

Watford

1.27

Watford creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 58 away

0.75

creates per match

1.05

1.50

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.75

Watford

1.05

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.50

Watford

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Watford+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

60%

Huddersfield or Watford

72%

Draw or Watford

68%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Watford wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

67%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

30%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

10%

Watford 1+ goals

72%

Watford 2+ goals

36%

Watford 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

45%

Watford (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Watford away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.48 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.75 + Watford defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.11

Watford attack 1.05 + Huddersfield defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huddersfield scores more

32%

level

28%

Watford scores more

40%

Watford at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Watford will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

F. Sierralta

Watford · D

7.7

Match Events

57'

Jake Livermore

63'

R. Andrews← J. Ngakia

67'

Giorgi Chakvetadze

67'

M. Rajović← V. Bayo

67'

I. Koné← G. Chakvetadze

73'

B. Diarra← K. Hudlin

86'

J. Ruffels← R. Edmonds-Green

87'

Matheus Martins← Y. Asprilla

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldWatford

Overview

29%Possession71%

5Total Shots9

0.15Expected Goals (xG)0.37

0Corners3

6Fouls20

Shots

5Total Shots9

2On Target3

2Off Target3

1Blocked3

1Inside Box7

4Outside Box2

Passing

29%Possession71%

272Total Passes655

177Accurate Passes568

65%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls20

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2