Huddersfield 2–0 Watford: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Watford

E. Capoue 32' (OG)

F. Campbell 9'

12/19/2020

Championship · Round 20John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield37%

×Draw27%

Watford36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchWatford

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.23

Huddersfield

1.24

Watford

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 60 away

1.10

creates per match

1.01

1.45

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Watford

1.01

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Watford

1.38

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Watford →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

64%

Huddersfield or Watford

73%

Draw or Watford

63%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

16%

Watford wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

71%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

35%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

13%

Watford 1+ goals

71%

Watford 2+ goals

35%

Watford 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

50%

Watford (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.24

Watford attack 1.01 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Huddersfield scores more

37%

level

27%

Watford scores more

36%

Huddersfield at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

F. Campbell

Huddersfield · F

8.0

Match Events

9'

F. Campbell↳ I. Mbenza

21'

Ryan Schofield

30'

F. Sierralta← W. Troost-Ekong

32'

E. CapoueOwn goal

34'

Ben Wilmot

63'

A. Pritchard← C. Eiting

67'

S. Perica← E. Capoue

77'

A. Masina← B. Wilmot

77'

Marc Navarro← J. Ngakia

81'

A. Rowe← I. Mbenza

87'

Juninho Bacuna

90'

A. Diakhaby← J. Bacuna

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldWatford

Overview

42%Possession58%

10Total Shots21

5Corners7

13Fouls11

Shots

10Total Shots21

3On Target5

4Off Target11

3Blocked5

4Inside Box13

6Outside Box8

Passing

42%Possession58%

347Total Passes469

252Accurate Passes380

73%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1