Huddersfield 2–5 Stoke City: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

2 – 5

HT: 0 – 1

Stoke City

D. Batth 50' (OG)

S. Mounié 48'

L. Gregory 90'

T. Campbell 70', 66'

N. Powell 57'

S. Vokes 15'

1/1/2020

Championship · Round 26John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Huddersfield40%

×Draw26%

Stoke City34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchStoke City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.25

Huddersfield

1.37

Stoke City

1.25

Huddersfield creates 10% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 50 away

1.10

creates per match

1.04

1.45

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.10

Stoke City

1.04

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.45

Stoke City

1.64

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Huddersfield-0.03on par

Stoke City-0.26scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Stoke City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

66%

Huddersfield or Stoke City

74%

Draw or Stoke City

60%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

18%

Stoke City wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

75%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

40%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

16%

Stoke City 1+ goals

71%

Stoke City 2+ goals

36%

Stoke City 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

54%

Stoke City (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.45 · 14 matches

Stoke City away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.64 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.10 + Stoke City defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.37

Stoke City attack 1.04 + Huddersfield defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Huddersfield scores more

40%

level

26%

Stoke City scores more

34%

Huddersfield at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

T. Campbell

Stoke City · F

9.4

Match Events

15'

S. Vokes↳ N. Powell

23'

Jonathan Hogg

27'

Liam Lindsay

48'

S. Mounié↳ K. Ahearne-Grant

50'

D. BatthOwn goal

55'

Karlan Grant

57'

N. Powell↳ T. Campbell

59'

Danny Simpson

65'

Lewis O'Brien

66'

T. Campbell

70'

T. Campbell↳ S. Vokes

71'

F. Campbell← J. Hogg

74'

F. Hadërgjonaj← D. Simpson

80'

Tommy Smith

82'

Fraizer Campbell

85'

L. Gregory← N. Powell

90'

L. Gregory↳ J. McClean

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldStoke

Overview

52%Possession48%

6Total Shots15

5Corners5

10Fouls19

Shots

6Total Shots15

3On Target6

2Off Target7

1Blocked2

3Inside Box10

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

381Total Passes335

262Accurate Passes228

69%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls19

5Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1