Huddersfield 1–1 Leicester: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Leicester

L. Depoitre 46'

J. Vardy 50' (pen)

9/16/2017

Premier League · Round 5John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Huddersfield31%

×Draw26%

Leicester43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.42

Huddersfield

1.17

Leicester

1.42

Leicester creates 21% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 156 away

0.66

creates per match

1.43

1.41

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.66

Leicester

1.43

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.41

Leicester

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Leicester+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

57%

Huddersfield or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

69%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Leicester wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

33%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Leicester 1+ goals

76%

Leicester 2+ goals

41%

Leicester 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Leicester (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.66, concedes 1.41 · 29 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.67 · 156 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.66 + Leicester defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Leicester attack 1.43 + Huddersfield defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huddersfield scores more

31%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

43%

Leicester at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

A. Mooy

Huddersfield · M

8.0

Match Events

40'

Christopher Schindler

46'

L. Depoitre↳ A. Sabiri

50'

J. VardyPenalty

65'

D. Gray← M. Albrighton

69'

S. Okazaki← K. Iheanacho

74'

C. Quaner← E. Kachunga

80'

Shinji Okazaki

82'

J. Hogg← A. Sabiri

82'

I. Slimani← J. Vardy

90+2'

R. van La Parra← L. Depoitre

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldLeicester

Overview

59%Possession41%

15Total Shots10

8Corners4

6Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots10

3On Target1

6Off Target4

6Blocked5

7Inside Box7

8Outside Box3

Passing

59%Possession41%

486Total Passes344

383Accurate Passes247

79%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

6Fouls6

1Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1