Huddersfield vs Fleetwood Town

Huddersfield

CANC

15:00

Fleetwood Town

8/26/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huddersfield33%

×Draw29%

Fleetwood Town38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchFleetwood Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.17

Huddersfield

1.08

Fleetwood Town

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

1.33

creates per match

1.67

0.67

allows per match

0.83

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.33

Fleetwood Town

1.67

allows per match

Huddersfield

0.67

Fleetwood Town

0.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Fleetwood Town+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Fleetwood Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

62%

Huddersfield or Fleetwood Town

71%

Draw or Fleetwood Town

67%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Fleetwood Town wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

66%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

29%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

10%

Fleetwood Town 1+ goals

69%

Fleetwood Town 2+ goals

33%

Fleetwood Town 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

47%

Fleetwood Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Fleetwood Town away — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.33 + Fleetwood Town defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.08

Fleetwood Town attack 1.67 + Huddersfield defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huddersfield scores more

33%

level

29%

Fleetwood Town scores more

38%

Fleetwood Town at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Fleetwood Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff