Huddersfield 0–4 Coventry: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Coventry

T. Walker 90+3'

V. Gyökeres 59', 31'

G. Hamer 55'

3/4/2023

Championship · Round 35John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Huddersfield31%

×Draw26%

Coventry43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.42

Huddersfield

1.17

Coventry

1.42

Coventry creates 21% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 54 away

1.09

creates per match

1.49

1.35

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.09

Coventry

1.49

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.35

Coventry

1.25

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Huddersfield-0.09on par

Coventry+0.07on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

57%

Huddersfield or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

69%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

13%

Coventry wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

69%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

33%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Coventry 1+ goals

76%

Coventry 2+ goals

41%

Coventry 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Coventry (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.35 · 12 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.25 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.09 + Coventry defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.17

Coventry attack 1.49 + Huddersfield defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Huddersfield scores more

31%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

43%

Coventry at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

V. Gyökeres

Coventry · F

8.9

Match Events

18'

B. Diarra← J. Headley

24'

Ryan Howley

31'

V. Gyökeres

55'

G. Hamer↳ F. Dabo

59'

V. Gyökeres↳ G. Hamer

62'

J. Bidwell← J. Wilson-Esbrand

63'

J. Rhodes← M. Pearson

70'

T. Walker← M. Godden

70'

S. Maguire← R. Howley

70'

B. Norton-Cuffy← F. Dabo

80'

E. Camara← J. Hogg

80'

T. Simpson← D. Ward

87'

M. Rose← C. Doyle

90+3'

T. Walker↳ V. Gyökeres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldCoventry

Overview

45%Possession55%

14Total Shots13

5Corners5

10Fouls12

Shots

14Total Shots13

3On Target6

5Off Target3

6Blocked4

12Inside Box8

2Outside Box5

Passing

45%Possession55%

324Total Passes415

207Accurate Passes266

64%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls12

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3