Huddersfield 1–1 Coventry: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coventry

D. Ward 18'

M. Godden 90+3'

12/11/2021

Championship · Round 22John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Huddersfield30%

×Draw26%

Coventry44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchCoventry

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.45

Huddersfield

1.15

Coventry

1.45

Coventry creates 26% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 58 away

1.08

creates per match

1.44

1.46

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.08

Coventry

1.44

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.46

Coventry

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Coventry+0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Coventry →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

56%

Huddersfield or Coventry

74%

Draw or Coventry

70%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Coventry wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

68%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

32%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

11%

Coventry 1+ goals

77%

Coventry 2+ goals

42%

Coventry 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

41%

Coventry (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Coventry away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.08 + Coventry defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.15

Coventry attack 1.44 + Huddersfield defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huddersfield scores more

30%

level

26%

Coventry scores more

44%

Coventry at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Coventry will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

L. Nicholls

Huddersfield · G

8.9

Match Events

18'

45+2'

45+1'

61'

61'

62'

63'

71'

82'

90+2'

J. Ruffels← D. Holmes

90+3'

M. Godden↳ J. Jones

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldCoventry

Overview

35%Possession65%

10Total Shots22

5Corners9

8Fouls10

Shots

10Total Shots22

2On Target12

3Off Target7

5Blocked3

8Inside Box11

2Outside Box11

Passing

35%Possession65%

336Total Passes620

253Accurate Passes530

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

11Saves1

Discipline

8Fouls10

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2