Huddersfield 0–3 Chelsea: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Chelsea

Pedro 80'

Jorginho 45' (pen)

N. Kanté 34'

8/11/2018

Premier League · Round 1John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Huddersfield24%

×Draw26%

Chelsea50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchChelsea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.53

Huddersfield

0.97

Chelsea

1.53

Chelsea creates 58% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 201 away

0.68

creates per match

1.59

1.47

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Huddersfield

0.68

Chelsea

1.59

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.47

Chelsea

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Chelsea+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Chelsea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–113%

0–210%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

50%

Huddersfield or Chelsea

74%

Draw or Chelsea

76%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

8%

Chelsea wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

62%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

25%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

7%

Chelsea 1+ goals

78%

Chelsea 2+ goals

45%

Chelsea 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

32%

Chelsea (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 0.68, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

Chelsea away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.26 · 201 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 0.68 + Chelsea defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Chelsea attack 1.59 + Huddersfield defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huddersfield scores more

24%

level

26%

Chelsea scores more

50%

Chelsea at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Chelsea will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

E. Hazard

Chelsea · M

7.8

Match Events

34'

N. Kanté↳ Willian

44'

Christopher Schindler

45'

JorginhoPenalty

46'

L. Depoitre← A. Pritchard

68'

R. Loftus-Cheek← R. Barkley

69'

David Luiz

71'

A. Diakhaby← C. Löwe

76'

E. Hazard← Willian

80'

Pedro↳ E. Hazard

81'

V. Moses← Pedro

83'

Terence Kongolo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldChelsea

Overview

37%Possession63%

6Total Shots13

2Corners5

9Fouls8

Shots

6Total Shots13

1On Target4

4Off Target3

1Blocked6

4Inside Box10

2Outside Box3

Passing

37%Possession63%

372Total Passes658

281Accurate Passes582

76%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1