Huddersfield 1–2 Bournemouth: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bournemouth

J. Hogg 76'

D. Solanke 45'

P. Billing 15'

4/13/2021

Championship · Round 38John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Huddersfield30%

×Draw28%

Bournemouth42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchBournemouth

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.07

1.31

Huddersfield

1.07

Bournemouth

1.31

Bournemouth creates 22% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 50 away

1.23

creates per match

1.40

1.22

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.23

Bournemouth

1.40

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.22

Bournemouth

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par

Bournemouth+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Bournemouth →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

58%

Huddersfield or Bournemouth

72%

Draw or Bournemouth

70%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Bournemouth wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

66%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

29%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

9%

Bournemouth 1+ goals

73%

Bournemouth 2+ goals

38%

Bournemouth 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Bournemouth (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Bournemouth away — creates 1.40, concedes 0.92 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Bournemouth defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Bournemouth attack 1.40 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huddersfield scores more

30%

level

28%

Bournemouth scores more

42%

Bournemouth at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Bournemouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

P. Billing

Bournemouth · M

7.6

Match Events

12'

Ben Pearson

15'

P. Billing

45'

D. Solanke↳ B. Pearson

46'

R. Aarons← I. Mbenza

54'

D. Ward← F. Campbell

54'

S. Thomas← R. Edmonds-Green

64'

J. Stacey← D. Brooks

71'

S. High← J. Bacuna

72'

J. Stanislas← A. Groeneveld

76'

J. Hogg↳ D. Holmes

85'

J. Brown← D. Holmes

88'

S. Surridge← D. Solanke

90'

Sam Surridge

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldBournemouth

Overview

51%Possession49%

9Total Shots15

6Corners5

14Fouls8

Shots

9Total Shots15

3On Target5

2Off Target3

4Blocked7

7Inside Box12

2Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

445Total Passes417

352Accurate Passes321

79%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls8

0Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0

Championship: Huddersfield 1–2 Bournemouth

Bournemouth beat Huddersfield 2-1 in Championship on April 13, 2021.

Goals: P. Billing (15'), D. Solanke (45'), J. Hogg (76').

Huddersfield controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield vs Bournemouth — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: Huddersfield 1–2 Bournemouth