Huddersfield 1–2 Bolton: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Bolton

L. Castledine 7'

S. Dalby 90'

A. Cozier-Duberry 90'

10/16/2025

League One · Round 13John Smit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Huddersfield47%

×Draw24%

Bolton29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchBolton

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.27

Huddersfield

1.67

Bolton

1.27

Huddersfield creates 31% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

1.94

creates per match

1.51

1.04

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.94

Bolton

1.51

allows per match

Huddersfield

1.04

Bolton

1.41

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Huddersfield+0.20scores more

Bolton-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Bolton →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

71%

Huddersfield or Bolton

76%

Draw or Bolton

53%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

25%

Bolton wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

81%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

50%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

23%

Bolton 1+ goals

72%

Bolton 2+ goals

36%

Bolton 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

62%

Bolton (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.04 · 14 matches

Bolton away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.41 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.94 + Bolton defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Bolton attack 1.51 + Huddersfield defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Huddersfield scores more

47%

level

24%

Bolton scores more

29%

Huddersfield at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Cozier-Duberry

Bolton · M

8.5

Match Events

7'

L. Castledine↳ R. Roosken

27'

Josh Sheehan

29'

Amario Cozier-Duberry

36'

Joe Taylor

65'

M. Harness← L. Castledine

65'

D. Charles← J. Taylor

67'

J. McAtee← M. Forss

75'

M. Miller← B. Wiles

82'

S. Roughan← R. Roosken

82'

R. Taylor← M. Conway

85'

Richard Taylor

86'

A. Morley← X. Simons

86'

S. Dalby← J. Osei-Tutu

90+6'

Mason Burstow

90'

S. Dalby↳ A. Cozier-Duberry

90'

A. Cozier-Duberry↳ M. Burstow

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldBolton

Overview

41%Possession59%

7Total Shots14

6Corners8

11Fouls14

Shots

7Total Shots14

2On Target7

1Off Target3

4Blocked4

3Inside Box12

4Outside Box2

Passing

41%Possession59%

306Total Passes434

231Accurate Passes371

75%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

1Yellow Cards4

5Offsides0