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Huddersfield vs Blackpool — Championship 2018

Huddersfield
Huddersfield
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blackpool
Blackpool
T. Corbeanu 38'
9/4/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8John Smith's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Huddersfield44%
×Draw27%
Blackpool29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield
1.38
Blackpool
1.07

Huddersfield creates 29% more chances

Season form · 123 home / 52 away

creates per match

Huddersfield
1.23
Blackpool
0.92

allows per match

Huddersfield
1.22
Blackpool
1.52

finishing

Huddersfield+0.00on par
Blackpool+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

Blackpool →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw
71%
Huddersfield or Blackpool
73%
Draw or Blackpool
56%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+
21%
Blackpool wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals
75%
Huddersfield 2+ goals
40%
Huddersfield 3+ goals
16%
Blackpool 1+ goals
66%
Blackpool 2+ goals
29%
Blackpool 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)
60%
Blackpool (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.22 · 123 matches

Blackpool away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.23 + Blackpool defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Blackpool attack 0.92 + Huddersfield defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Huddersfield scores more
44%
level
27%
Blackpool scores more
29%

Huddersfield at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

32
D. GrimshawBlackpoolBlackpool · G
8.6

Match Events

38'
T. Corbeanu
56'
J. Ruffels← J. Hogg
56'
P. Jones← K. Kessler
58'
Callum Connolly
63'
Rhys Williams
65'
Jerry Yates
67'
J. Husband← R. Williams
73'
D. Holmes← F. Anjorin
76'
S. Lavery← I. Poveda-Ocampo
76'
C. Hamilton← T. Corbeanu
81'
J. Rhodes← D. Ward
81'
E. Camara← J. Russell

Possession

64%Huddersfield

Shots

15Huddersfield

Pass accuracy

54%Huddersfield

Statistics

HuddersfieldBlackpool
Overview
64%Possession36%
15Total Shots7
10Corners2
8Fouls4
Shots
15Total Shots7
6On Target2
6Off Target2
3Blocked3
11Inside Box4
4Outside Box3
Passing
64%Possession36%
482Total Passes283
393Accurate Passes194
82%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
1Saves6
Discipline
8Fouls4
0Yellow Cards3
5Offsides1

Match Recap: Huddersfield vs Blackpool

Blackpool beat Huddersfield 1-0 in Championship on September 4, 2022.

Goals: T. Corbeanu (38').

Huddersfield controlled possession (64%) and registered 15 shots to 7.

The match was played at John Smith's Stadium in Huddersfield, West Yorkshire.