Huddersfield 3–3 AFC Wimbledon: Result & Stats

Huddersfield

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

AFC Wimbledon

A. May 86'

B. Wiles 63'

L. Castledine 46'

R. Johnson 71'

D. Orsi-Dadomo 48'

M. Browne 32'

11/29/2025

League One · Round 18John Smit

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Huddersfield59%

×Draw22%

AFC Wimbledon19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuddersfieldExpected goals in this matchAFC Wimbledon

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.02

Huddersfield

1.96

AFC Wimbledon

1.02

Huddersfield creates 92% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

1.95

creates per match

1.10

0.94

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Huddersfield

1.95

AFC Wimbledon

1.10

allows per match

Huddersfield

0.94

AFC Wimbledon

1.96

+0.13scores more than expected

finishing

+0.17scores more than expected

finishing

Huddersfield+0.13scores more

AFC Wimbledon+0.17scores more

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield ↓

AFC Wimbledon →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Huddersfield or draw

81%

Huddersfield or AFC Wimbledon

78%

Draw or AFC Wimbledon

41%

Winning margin

Huddersfield wins by 2+

35%

AFC Wimbledon wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Huddersfield 1+ goals

86%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

58%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

31%

AFC Wimbledon 1+ goals

64%

AFC Wimbledon 2+ goals

27%

AFC Wimbledon 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

75%

AFC Wimbledon (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.94 · 12 matches

AFC Wimbledon away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.96 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield attack 1.95 + AFC Wimbledon defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.96

AFC Wimbledon attack 1.10 + Huddersfield defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Huddersfield scores more

59%

level

22%

AFC Wimbledon scores more

19%

Huddersfield at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Huddersfield will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

L. Castledine

Huddersfield · M

8.0

Match Events

32'

M. Browne↳ S. Seddon

46'

B. Wiles← L. Sorensen

46'

L. Castledine↳ C. Ashia

48'

57'

63'

66'

71'

R. Johnson↳ J. Reeves

73'

Ryan Johnson

75'

C. Maycock← M. Hippolyte

75'

O. Bugiel← D. Orsi-Dadomo

75'

A. Sasu← M. Browne

81'

Cameron Ashia

86'

A. May

87'

S. Hutchinson← J. Reeves

88'

R. Harbottle← N. Asiimwe

89'

Bojan Radulović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuddersfieldAFC

Overview

66%Possession34%

25Total Shots7

2.93Expected Goals (xG)1.98

11Corners2

10Fouls9

Shots

25Total Shots7

10On Target4

6Off Target3

9Blocked0

20Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

66%Possession34%

519Total Passes268

436Accurate Passes162

84%Pass Accuracy60%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

10Fouls9

2Yellow Cards2

4Offsides2