Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huddersfield Town W vs Loughborough Lightning — FA Women's Cup 2019

Huddersfield Town W
Huddersfield Town W
FT
3 – 1
Loughborough Lightning
Loughborough Lightning
12/12/2021FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundStorthes Hall Training Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Huddersfield Town W63%
×Draw16%
Loughborough Lightning20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield Town W
3.19
Loughborough Lightning
1.82

Huddersfield Town W creates 75% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Huddersfield Town W
4.67
Loughborough Lightning
1.86

allows per match

Huddersfield Town W
1.78
Loughborough Lightning
1.71

finishing

Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par
Loughborough Lightning+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Over
  • Over87
  • Under13

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield Town W ↓

Loughborough Lightning →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–14%
1–24%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–25%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (7%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
87%13%3.5
72%28%4.5
54%46%

Double chance

Huddersfield Town W or draw
80%
Huddersfield Town W or Loughborough Lightning
84%
Draw or Loughborough Lightning
37%

Winning margin

Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+
44%
Loughborough Lightning wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals
96%
Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals
82%
Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals
60%
Loughborough Lightning 1+ goals
84%
Loughborough Lightning 2+ goals
54%
Loughborough Lightning 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)
76%
Loughborough Lightning (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
76%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield Town W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Loughborough Lightning away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield Town W attack 4.67 + Loughborough Lightning defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 3.19

Loughborough Lightning attack 1.86 + Huddersfield Town W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Huddersfield Town W scores more
63%
level
16%
Loughborough Lightning scores more
20%

Huddersfield Town W at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Huddersfield Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Huddersfield Town W 3–1 Loughborough Lightning

Huddersfield Town W beat Loughborough Lightning 3-1 in FA Women's Cup on December 12, 2021.

The match was played at Storthes Hall Training Complex in Kirkburton, West Yorkshire.