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Huddersfield Town W vs Durham Cestria W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Huddersfield Town W
Huddersfield Town W
FT
3 – 0
Durham Cestria W
Durham Cestria W
11/27/2022FA Women's CupFA Women's Cup · 2nd RoundStorthes Hall Training Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Huddersfield Town W74%
×Draw13%
Durham Cestria W12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huddersfield Town W
3.41
Durham Cestria W
1.39

Huddersfield Town W creates 145% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Huddersfield Town W
4.67
Durham Cestria W
1.00

allows per match

Huddersfield Town W
1.78
Durham Cestria W
2.14

finishing

Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par
Durham Cestria W+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield Town W ↓

Durham Cestria W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–14%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–18%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–17%
4–25%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

Huddersfield Town W or draw
88%
Huddersfield Town W or Durham Cestria W
87%
Draw or Durham Cestria W
26%

Winning margin

Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+
56%
Durham Cestria W wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals
96%
Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals
85%
Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals
64%
Durham Cestria W 1+ goals
75%
Durham Cestria W 2+ goals
40%
Durham Cestria W 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)
86%
Durham Cestria W (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
68%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield Town W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Durham Cestria W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield Town W attack 4.67 + Durham Cestria W defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 3.41

Durham Cestria W attack 1.00 + Huddersfield Town W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Huddersfield Town W scores more
74%
level
13%
Durham Cestria W scores more
12%

Huddersfield Town W at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Huddersfield Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huddersfield Town W vs Durham Cestria W

Huddersfield Town W beat Durham Cestria W 3-0 in FA Women's Cup on November 27, 2022.

The match was played at Storthes Hall Training Complex in Kirkburton, West Yorkshire.