Huddersfield Town W 1–1 Brighouse Town W

Huddersfield Town W

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Brighouse Town W

4/11/2021

FA Women's Cup · 3rd RoundStorthes Hall Training Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huddersfield Town W42%

×Draw20%

Brighouse Town W38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Huddersfield Town WExpected goals in this matchBrighouse Town W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

2.23

Huddersfield Town W

2.33

Brighouse Town W

2.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 3 away

4.67

creates per match

2.67

1.78

allows per match

0.00

creates per match

Huddersfield Town W

4.67

Brighouse Town W

2.67

allows per match

Huddersfield Town W

1.78

Brighouse Town W

0.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huddersfield Town W+0.00on par

Brighouse Town W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes80
No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huddersfield Town W ↓

Brighouse Town W →

0–01%

0–12%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–02%

1–16%

1–26%

1–35%

1–43%

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3–02%

3–15%

3–26%

3–34%

3–42%

4–01%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Huddersfield Town W or draw

62%

Huddersfield Town W or Brighouse Town W

80%

Draw or Brighouse Town W

58%

Winning margin

Huddersfield Town W wins by 2+

24%

Brighouse Town W wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Huddersfield Town W 1+ goals

90%

Huddersfield Town W 2+ goals

67%

Huddersfield Town W 3+ goals

41%

Brighouse Town W 1+ goals

89%

Brighouse Town W 2+ goals

65%

Brighouse Town W 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Huddersfield Town W (draw refunded)

52%

Brighouse Town W (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

75%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Huddersfield Town W at home — creates 4.67, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Brighouse Town W away — creates 2.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Huddersfield Town W attack 4.67 + Brighouse Town W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 2.33

Brighouse Town W attack 2.67 + Huddersfield Town W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 42%?"

Huddersfield Town W scores more

42%

level

20%

Brighouse Town W scores more

38%

Huddersfield Town W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Huddersfield Town W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Women's Cup: Huddersfield Town W 1–1 Brighouse Town W

Huddersfield Town W and Brighouse Town W drew 1-1 in FA Women's Cup on April 11, 2021.

The match was played at Storthes Hall Training Complex in Kirkburton, West Yorkshire.

Huddersfield Town W vs Brighouse Town W — FA Women's Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

FA Women's Cup: Huddersfield Town W 1–1 Brighouse Town W