Hubei Chufeng Heli 0–2 Shanghai Port II

Hubei Chufeng Heli

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Shanghai Port II

Wang Song 82'

Liao Chongjiu 34'

5/2/2025

League Two · Round 7Xinhua Road Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli33%

×Draw28%

Shanghai Port II39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hubei Chufeng HeliExpected goals in this matchShanghai Port II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.21

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.09

Shanghai Port II

1.21

Shanghai Port II creates 11% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 38 away

1.13

creates per match

1.24

1.17

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.13

Shanghai Port II

1.24

allows per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.17

Shanghai Port II

1.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Shanghai Port II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hubei Chufeng Heli ↓

Shanghai Port II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw

61%

Hubei Chufeng Heli or Shanghai Port II

72%

Draw or Shanghai Port II

67%

Winning margin

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+

13%

Shanghai Port II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals

66%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals

30%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals

10%

Shanghai Port II 1+ goals

70%

Shanghai Port II 2+ goals

34%

Shanghai Port II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)

46%

Shanghai Port II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hubei Chufeng Heli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Shanghai Port II away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.13 + Shanghai Port II defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.09

Shanghai Port II attack 1.24 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more

33%

level

28%

Shanghai Port II scores more

39%

Shanghai Port II at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Shanghai Port II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

S. Zhao

24'

B. Yang← Z. Wang

34'

Liao Chongjiu↳ Liu Lei

38'

J. Xiong

45+1'

Fan Weyiang

46'

Wen Jialong← J. Xiong

46'

Zhong Minghzi← Cui Shengcheng

46'

Zhang Huiyu← Yang Zihan

60'

Z. Wang← Huang Jiale

60'

Wen Junxiang← Liu Lei

79'

Li Jaqi←

82'

Wang Song↳ Lu Kun

83'

Memetimin Mewlan← Y. Zhou

87'

Wu Jin← Wang Song

87'

Wang Jinglei← Liao Chongjiu

Hubei

Shanghai

55

Anjie

21

A

50

20

5

6

7

⚽

▼

Song

48

A

▼

Lei

18

▼

Zihan

9

Li

10

⚽

▼

Chongjiu

45

Deliang

54

Tianle

47

▼

Zhou

58

▼

Wang

66

▼

Shengchen

55

Xia

56

▼

Xiong

57

Jiang

59

▼

Jiale

52

Huang

51

Gao

Manager: Américo Filipe Lemos Soares

24'▲B. Yang←▼Z. Wang

46'▲Wen Jialong←▼J. Xiong

46'▲Zhong Minghzi←▼Cui Shengcheng

60'▲Z. Wang←▼Huang Jiale

83'▲Memetimin Mewlan←▼Y. Zhou

Hubei Chufeng Heli substitutes

8Longyun10Jialong17Yan26Zhao42Jiayi43Xinghao46Yang48Wang60Guiying61Minghzi65Mewlan67Xiankun

Manager: Yaodong Cheng

46'▲Zhang Huiyu←▼Yang Zihan

60'▲Wen Junxiang←▼Liu Lei

79'▲Li Jaqi←▼—

87'▲Wu Jin←▼Wang Song

87'▲Wang Jinglei←▼Liao Chongjiu

Shanghai Port II substitutes

1Kun3Yi8Fan16Jaqi17Chunxiao29Jin37Huiyu41Jinglei42Dongcheng45Junxiang54Ruilong56Zejia