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Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Langfang Glory City — League Two 2022

Hubei Chufeng Heli
Hubei Chufeng Heli
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Langfang Glory City
Langfang Glory City
3/30/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Xinhua Road Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli41%
×Draw29%
Langfang Glory City30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.23
Langfang Glory City
1.00

Hubei Chufeng Heli creates 23% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 37 away

creates per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.13
Langfang Glory City
0.84

allows per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli
1.17
Langfang Glory City
1.32

finishing

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par
Langfang Glory City+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hubei Chufeng Heli ↓

Langfang Glory City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw
70%
Hubei Chufeng Heli or Langfang Glory City
71%
Draw or Langfang Glory City
59%

Winning margin

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+
18%
Langfang Glory City wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals
71%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals
35%
Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals
13%
Langfang Glory City 1+ goals
63%
Langfang Glory City 2+ goals
26%
Langfang Glory City 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)
58%
Langfang Glory City (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hubei Chufeng Heli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Langfang Glory City away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.13 + Langfang Glory City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Langfang Glory City attack 0.84 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more
41%
level
29%
Langfang Glory City scores more
30%

Hubei Chufeng Heli at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hubei Chufeng Heli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hubei Chufeng Heli vs Langfang Glory City

Hubei Chufeng Heli beat Langfang Glory City 2-0 in League Two on March 30, 2024.

The match was played at Xinhua Road Sports Center in Wuhan.