Hubei Chufeng Heli 1–1 Hunan Billows FC

Hubei Chufeng Heli

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hunan Billows FC

10/27/2022

League Two · Relegation Round - 1Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli48%

×Draw26%

Hunan Billows FC26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hubei Chufeng HeliExpected goals in this matchHunan Billows FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.05

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.52

Hunan Billows FC

1.05

Hubei Chufeng Heli creates 45% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 33 away

1.13

creates per match

0.94

1.17

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.13

Hunan Billows FC

0.94

allows per match

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.17

Hunan Billows FC

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hubei Chufeng Heli ↓

Hunan Billows FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Hubei Chufeng Heli or draw

74%

Hubei Chufeng Heli or Hunan Billows FC

74%

Draw or Hunan Billows FC

52%

Winning margin

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+

24%

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals

78%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals

45%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals

20%

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals

65%

Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals

28%

Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)

65%

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hubei Chufeng Heli at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.17 · 54 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.13 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.52

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more

48%

level

26%

Hunan Billows FC scores more

26%

Hubei Chufeng Heli at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Hubei Chufeng Heli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff