Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Huarte vs San Juan — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
San Juan
San Juan
12/5/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 13Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Huarte41%
×Draw27%
San Juan32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
1.36
San Juan
1.17

Huarte creates 16% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 62 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
San Juan
1.29

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
San Juan
0.94

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
San Juan+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

San Juan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
68%
Huarte or San Juan
73%
Draw or San Juan
59%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
19%
San Juan wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
74%
Huarte 2+ goals
39%
Huarte 3+ goals
16%
San Juan 1+ goals
69%
San Juan 2+ goals
33%
San Juan 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
56%
San Juan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

San Juan away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.94 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + San Juan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.36

San Juan attack 1.29 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huarte scores more
41%
level
27%
San Juan scores more
32%

Huarte at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huarte vs San Juan

San Juan beat Huarte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 5, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Areta in Huarte (Uharte).