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Huarte vs Murchante — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Murchante
Murchante
4/10/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 2nd Phase - 1Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Huarte50%
×Draw25%
Murchante25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
1.60
Murchante
1.05

Huarte creates 52% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 41 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
Murchante
1.05

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
Murchante
1.41

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
Murchante+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Murchante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
75%
Huarte or Murchante
75%
Draw or Murchante
50%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
26%
Murchante wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
80%
Huarte 2+ goals
47%
Huarte 3+ goals
22%
Murchante 1+ goals
65%
Murchante 2+ goals
28%
Murchante 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
67%
Murchante (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Murchante away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.41 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Murchante defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Murchante attack 1.05 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Huarte scores more
50%
level
25%
Murchante scores more
25%

Huarte at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huarte vs Murchante

Huarte beat Murchante 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on April 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Areta in Uharte.