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Huarte vs Atlético Artajonés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Atlético Artajonés
Atlético Artajonés
12/18/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 15Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Huarte62%
×Draw22%
Atlético Artajonés16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
1.91
Atlético Artajonés
0.86

Huarte creates 122% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 34 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
Atlético Artajonés
0.68

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
Atlético Artajonés
2.03

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
Atlético Artajonés+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Atlético Artajonés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
84%
Huarte or Atlético Artajonés
78%
Draw or Atlético Artajonés
38%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
37%
Atlético Artajonés wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
85%
Huarte 2+ goals
57%
Huarte 3+ goals
30%
Atlético Artajonés 1+ goals
58%
Atlético Artajonés 2+ goals
21%
Atlético Artajonés 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
79%
Atlético Artajonés (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Atlético Artajonés away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.03 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Atlético Artajonés defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.91

Atlético Artajonés attack 0.68 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Huarte scores more
62%
level
22%
Atlético Artajonés scores more
16%

Huarte at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huarte 1 – 1 Atlético Artajonés

Huarte and Atlético Artajonés drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on December 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Areta in Huarte (Uharte).