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Huarte vs Aoiz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 2019

Huarte
Huarte
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Aoiz
Aoiz
10/11/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 15Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 · Group 15 - 6Estadio Areta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Huarte52%
×Draw25%
Aoiz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huarte
1.60
Aoiz
0.99

Huarte creates 62% more chances

Season form · 107 home / 17 away

creates per match

Huarte
1.79
Aoiz
0.94

allows per match

Huarte
1.05
Aoiz
1.41

finishing

Huarte+0.00on par
Aoiz+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huarte ↓

Aoiz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huarte or draw
77%
Huarte or Aoiz
75%
Draw or Aoiz
48%

Winning margin

Huarte wins by 2+
27%
Aoiz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Huarte 1+ goals
80%
Huarte 2+ goals
47%
Huarte 3+ goals
22%
Aoiz 1+ goals
63%
Aoiz 2+ goals
26%
Aoiz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Huarte (draw refunded)
69%
Aoiz (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huarte at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.05 · 107 matches

Aoiz away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huarte attack 1.79 + Aoiz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.60

Aoiz attack 0.94 + Huarte defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Huarte scores more
52%
level
25%
Aoiz scores more
23%

Huarte at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Huarte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Huarte 1 – 2 Aoiz

Aoiz beat Huarte 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on October 11, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Areta in Huarte (Uharte).