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Huai Thalaeng United vs Super Power — FA Cup 2018

Huai Thalaeng United
Huai Thalaeng United
FT
0 – 0
Super Power
Super Power
5/1/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Huai Thalaeng United67%
×Draw25%
Super Power8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huai Thalaeng United
1.50
Super Power
0.33

Huai Thalaeng United creates 355% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Huai Thalaeng United
0.33
Super Power
0.33

allows per match

Huai Thalaeng United
0.33
Super Power
2.67

finishing

Huai Thalaeng United+0.00on par
Super Power+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huai Thalaeng United ↓

Super Power →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–024%
1–18%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–16%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–13%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (24%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Huai Thalaeng United or draw
92%
Huai Thalaeng United or Super Power
75%
Draw or Super Power
33%

Winning margin

Huai Thalaeng United wins by 2+
37%
Super Power wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Huai Thalaeng United 1+ goals
78%
Huai Thalaeng United 2+ goals
44%
Huai Thalaeng United 3+ goals
19%
Super Power 1+ goals
28%
Super Power 2+ goals
4%
Super Power 3+ goals
0%

Draw no bet

Huai Thalaeng United (draw refunded)
90%
Super Power (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huai Thalaeng United at home — creates 0.33, concedes 0.33 · 3 matches

Super Power away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huai Thalaeng United attack 0.33 + Super Power defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Super Power attack 0.33 + Huai Thalaeng United defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Huai Thalaeng United scores more
67%
level
25%
Super Power scores more
8%

Huai Thalaeng United at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Huai Thalaeng United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huai Thalaeng United vs Super Power

Huai Thalaeng United and Super Power drew 0-0 in FA Cup on May 1, 2019.