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Huachipato vs U. Catolica — Primera División 2018

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
U. Catolica
U. Catolica
5/31/2026Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Round 14Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 127+ matches

Huachipato38%
×Draw27%
U. Catolica35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
1.32
U. Catolica
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 129 away

creates per match

Huachipato
1.45
U. Catolica
1.50

allows per match

Huachipato
1.00
U. Catolica
1.19

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
U. Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

U. Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
65%
Huachipato or U. Catolica
73%
Draw or U. Catolica
62%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
17%
U. Catolica wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
73%
Huachipato 2+ goals
38%
Huachipato 3+ goals
15%
U. Catolica 1+ goals
71%
U. Catolica 2+ goals
36%
U. Catolica 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
52%
U. Catolica (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 127 matches

U. Catolica away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.19 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + U. Catolica defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.32

U. Catolica attack 1.50 + Huachipato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huachipato scores more
38%
level
27%
U. Catolica scores more
35%

Huachipato at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huachipato vs U. Catolica

U. Catolica beat Huachipato 3-0 in Primera División on May 31, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero in Talcahuano.