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Huachipato vs Magallanes — Copa Chile 2019

Huachipato
Huachipato
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Magallanes
Magallanesadvanced
10/12/2022Copa ChileCopa Chile · Semi-finalsEstadio CAP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Huachipato41%
×Draw25%
Magallanes33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huachipato
1.50
Magallanes
1.32

Huachipato creates 14% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 25 away

creates per match

Huachipato
1.68
Magallanes
1.96

allows per match

Huachipato
0.68
Magallanes
1.32

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par
Magallanes+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Magallanes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw
67%
Huachipato or Magallanes
75%
Draw or Magallanes
59%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+
20%
Magallanes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals
78%
Huachipato 2+ goals
44%
Huachipato 3+ goals
19%
Magallanes 1+ goals
73%
Magallanes 2+ goals
38%
Magallanes 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)
55%
Magallanes (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.68, concedes 0.68 · 19 matches

Magallanes away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.68 + Magallanes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.50

Magallanes attack 1.96 + Huachipato defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Huachipato scores more
41%
level
25%
Magallanes scores more
33%

Huachipato at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huachipato vs Magallanes

Magallanes beat Huachipato 1-0 in Copa Chile on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio CAP in Talcahuano.