Huachipato 0–1 Coquimbo Unido: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Coquimbo Unido

C. Waterman 2'

8/30/2025

Primera División · Round 22Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Huachipato38%

×Draw26%

Coquimbo Unido36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchCoquimbo Unido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

1.29

Huachipato

1.35

Coquimbo Unido

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

1.61

creates per match

1.33

1.26

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Huachipato

1.61

Coquimbo Unido

1.33

allows per match

Huachipato

1.26

Coquimbo Unido

1.10

+0.56scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Huachipato+0.56scores more

Coquimbo Unido-0.33scores less

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Coquimbo Unido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

64%

Huachipato or Coquimbo Unido

74%

Draw or Coquimbo Unido

62%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

17%

Coquimbo Unido wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

74%

Huachipato 2+ goals

39%

Huachipato 3+ goals

15%

Coquimbo Unido 1+ goals

72%

Coquimbo Unido 2+ goals

37%

Coquimbo Unido 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

52%

Coquimbo Unido (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.26 · 6 matches

Coquimbo Unido away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.10 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.61 + Coquimbo Unido defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.35

Coquimbo Unido attack 1.33 + Huachipato defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Huachipato scores more

38%

level

26%

Coquimbo Unido scores more

36%

Huachipato at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Palavecino

Coquimbo Unido · M

8.0

Match Events

2'

C. Waterman↳ J. Cornejo

5'

14'

14'

16'

28'

30'

46'

M. Briceno← C. Martinez

50'

Martín Mundaca

51'

A. Camargo← S. Cordero

51'

S. Cabrera← M. A. Mundaca Barraza

63'

L. Arriagada← J. A. Martinez

63'

Brea← J. I. Gutierrez Jara

63'

C. G. Torres Gaete← L. Diaz

70'

Rafael Caroca

72'

N. Johansen← C. Waterman

72'

A. E. Azocar Machuca← B. Chandia

80'

R. Malanca← S. Silva

87'

Bruno CabreraRed card cancelled

88'

Bruno Cabrera

89'

E. Hernandez← M. Palavecino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HuachipatoCoquimbo

Overview

58%Possession42%

8Total Shots12

5Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target3

2Off Target8

3Blocked1

4Inside Box10

4Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

429Total Passes315

348Accurate Passes257

81%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls14

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

1Offsides3

Primera División: Huachipato 0–1 Coquimbo Unido

Coquimbo Unido beat Huachipato 1-0 in Primera División on August 30, 2025.

Goals: C. Waterman (2').

Huachipato controlled possession (58%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero in Talcahuano.

Huachipato vs Coquimbo Unido — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Huachipato 0–1 Coquimbo Unido