Huachipato 2–1 Colo Colo: Result & Stats

Huachipato

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Colo Colo

3/2/2025

Primera División · Round 3Estadio Huachipato-CAP Acero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 126+ matches

Huachipato39%

×Draw27%

Colo Colo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

HuachipatoExpected goals in this matchColo Colo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.18

Huachipato

1.29

Colo Colo

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 127 home / 126 away

1.45

creates per match

1.35

1.00

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Huachipato

1.45

Colo Colo

1.35

allows per match

Huachipato

1.00

Colo Colo

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Huachipato+0.00on par

Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huachipato ↓

Colo Colo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Huachipato or draw

66%

Huachipato or Colo Colo

73%

Draw or Colo Colo

61%

Winning margin

Huachipato wins by 2+

17%

Colo Colo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Huachipato 1+ goals

72%

Huachipato 2+ goals

37%

Huachipato 3+ goals

14%

Colo Colo 1+ goals

69%

Colo Colo 2+ goals

33%

Colo Colo 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Huachipato (draw refunded)

54%

Colo Colo (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huachipato at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.00 · 127 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.14 · 126 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huachipato attack 1.45 + Colo Colo defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.29

Colo Colo attack 1.35 + Huachipato defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Huachipato scores more

39%

level

27%

Colo Colo scores more

34%

Huachipato at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Huachipato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff